What if Assad wins the war

Syria war about to end? : Assad has already won

What follows is a hard and sober-sounding result: The war in Syria is over, many refugees will soon be able to return home. The terrorist militia Islamic State (IS) is finally defeated, Russia announces the withdrawal of its troops. President Bashar al-Assad is firmly in the saddle, the US under Donald Trump has stopped supporting the rebels and is no longer pushing for Assad to resign. Turkey has grown closer to Russia and Iran and is only interested in the Kurdish component in the conflict. Even Saudi Arabia and Egypt have recognized that peace and stability are more important for the region than hopeless struggles to overthrow the dictator.

The war lasted longer than six years, more than 300,000 people died, almost twelve million on the run, half of them within the Syrian borders. Toxic gases were used, crimes were committed, people were tortured, and civilians were used as protective shields. Large parts of the country are mined, many places and cities have been destroyed. And now? Assad will remain unmolested for the time being, Iran was able to expand its sphere of influence with the help of Russia, the West was embarrassed. In order to endure all of this, it takes a good deal of cynical realism ’.

The fist clenched in anger in the pocket

But even if your fist clenched in anger in your pocket: Since the intervention of Russia and Iran to consolidate Assad's power, the war is nearing its end. At the beginning of the year, Syrian troops controlled 19 percent of the country, now it is more than half, including the four largest cities, access to the Mediterranean, ten of 14 provincial capitals and 85 percent of the population.

The IS was defeated, the area of ​​the last remaining rebels is shrinking steadily, according to the UNHCR 500,000 refugees - 440,000 from inside Syria and 31,000 from outside Syria - have returned to their homes this year. The conditions for a safe return of the refugees are not yet in place, but the trend is “remarkable”, says the UNHCR.

The misery of the more than five million refugees, most of whom are living in camps in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq, contributed to the change - and this is bitter too. Their fate made the rulers of these countries come to realize that persistent violence also has negative consequences for their own people.

The war in Syria is over. Assad, Vladimir Putin and Hassan Ruhani won. Because the clocks cannot be turned back, the main task now is to rebuild. Sometimes only that remains of the desire for justice - the desire.

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