What is the next stop to Agra

Weather and climate will become more extreme worldwide over the next 10 years

“We are the first generation who can measure, observe and scientifically analyze the effects of man-made climate change so comprehensively. This knowledge is in the world and can no longer be swept under the table. But we are also the first generation to experience the consequences of human-made global warming first-hand, ”explained Prof. Dr. Gerhard Adrian, President of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the DWD last week at the annual climate press conference of the national weather service.

With a view to global climate change and climate protection, the WMO President draws a drastic conclusion: "All the important levers are still turning in the wrong direction!" The greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere is still increasing, the global mean temperature continues to rise and the same applies to the mean rise in global sea level. Adrian: “So far, mankind has not wanted to hear the storm bells. Our weather and climate are becoming more extreme - worldwide, in Europe and in this country. "

Globally, 2019 was the second warmest, the past five years were the warmest, and the decade from 2010 to 2019 was the warmest since global records began in 1850.

For the first time, DWD calculates climate forecasts for the next ten years

Decadal climate forecasts are new to the DWD. According to Tobias Fuchs, head of climatology at the DWD, they fill the gap between climate forecasts that have already been used for the next few months and long-term climate projections up to the end of the century.

The current decadal climate forecast for Germany (Fig. 1) shows that in 2020 in all German regions it could be 1.0-1.5 degrees warmer than the mean of the reference period 1981-2010. In the five-year mean 2025-2029, the climate forecast in the western and eastern parts of Germany even expects temperatures 1.5-2.0 degrees higher.

Calculations of the precipitation for the next ten years indicate that, for example, average precipitation can be expected in this country in 2020, but the five-year period 2020-2024 will probably be too dry. The DWD is now also calculating comparable climate forecasts for Europe and the world.

DWD presents new heavy rain statistics for Germany

Another new offer from the national weather service is heavy rain statistics for Germany. With the help of the DWD's weather radar network, it records heavy precipitation across the board for the first time - so far for the period 2001-2018.

According to DWD expert Dr. Thomas Deutschländer that heavy precipitation in Germany preferentially occurs in the warm season from May to September. The previous peak value comes from July 2006 with a total of 867 events. Another interesting detail is that in 2018, for the first time in this century, there was an above-average number of heavy precipitation events in this country in a summer that was too warm and at the same time too dry.

In the previously comparable summers of 2003, 2013 and 2015, the DWD only observed average frequencies of heavy precipitation. Should this anomaly repeat itself in the comparable summer of 2019, it could be a signal that climate change is causing an increase in heavy rain events even in warm and dry summers.

Deutschländer: "That would correspond to the expectations of climate researchers that our summers in the future will be very much characterized by a sequence of days with extreme precipitation and then again longer dry phases with the risk of drought."

Although no trends could yet be derived from the observation period of only 18 years, the DWD expert is convinced: “The disaster control, the water and insurance industry, city planners and agriculture can access these regionally and nationwide as well as differentiated data available for individual months Make good use of heavy rain events in your planning today. "

Balance sheet for 2019

With a mean temperature of 10.3 degrees Celsius (° C) in Germany, 2019 was together with 2014 the second warmest year since the beginning of the 139-year temperature time series (Figure 3). Eleven of the twelve months of 2019 were too warm. Compared to the mean value for the international reference period 1961-1990 of 8.2 ° C, it was 2.1 degrees too warm.

Nine of the ten warmest years in Germany occurred in the past 20 years. Since records began in 1881, the warming trend in this country has been +1.6 degrees or 0.11 degrees per decade. The increased temperature increase in the recent past gives another figure: Since 1970 it has been 0.37 degrees warmer per decade.

From July 24 to 26, 2019, maximum temperatures of over 40 ° C occurred on three consecutive days in western Germany. On July 25th, the heat reached its peak in large parts of Germany. On July 25, a total of 24 stations reported maximum temperatures of 40 ° C or more. The new record holder in Germany is now the Lingen station in Emsland with a temperature of 42.6 ° C.

Regarding precipitation: Compared to the long-term mean values ​​of the reference period, five months were too wet and seven too dry in 2019. In total, 735 liters per square meter (l / m2) Precipitation in the area average of Germany a deficit of almost 54 l / m2 or 6.8%. In the period from April to September, which is particularly important for plant growth, the German mean fell around 83 l / m2 less precipitation than in the reference period 1961-1990. In June, July and August alone the deficit totaled 65 l / m2, that's around 27%.

Heat and drought probably had the greatest influence on the weather and climate year 2019. Other striking meteorological extremes in Germany were the heavy and persistent snowfall in the northern damming of the Alps and some low mountain ranges in the first half of January, the long series of storm lows with gusts up to Hurricane strength from the beginning to the middle of March or low "Axel", which brought heavy and permanent precipitation to large parts of Germany in mid-May with return times of sometimes over 100 years.